Tag Archives: Decision Making

Your idea of success is completely wrong

There is this idea that success is 100% correct decision making. For some people, they understand this to be 90% or even 80% correct decision making. This idea is completely wrong. A success rate of 56%, implying 44% incorrect decisions, is a great result. Here’s why. Let’s simplify things. Assume that you are the chief executive of a company…

Decision making and risk

My willingness and ability to take risks and manage them often comes up as a topic of conversation. Let me explain how I got here. In 1989, after completing my first year at university, I spent the summer as an intern at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia). I found the world of investments fascinating…

Improving statistical analysis improves decision-making

This article was originally published in The National. This article is published in Arabic in Al Ittihad as نصائح دون طلب . I often hear advice given by the likes of the IMF and other national economy research institutions that the UAE has too many Emiratis working in the Government, and that the Government should incentivise…

Company grief: when a company falls in the economy, does it make a sound?

There is a well-known model on the stages of human grief called the Kubler-Ross model. I believe it can be the basis for a form of company grief, a grief that we are seeing in a growing number of companies during these difficult times. In this article I describe the seven stages of company grief…

Adapt and progress: Learning from Germany’s Fifa World Cup 2014 success

There is a saying: insight comes after action far more often than action comes after insight. Decision-making under uncertainty is a normal part of business. One could argue that it is at the core of managing a business. It is simply impossible to assemble all the data relevant to a decision. Other barriers include some…

Exponential Crisis Response Strategies

In a world of uncertainty management is constantly evaluating potential risks as they unfold and deciding how to respond. At one end of the response spectrum is what might be called the Anglo-Saxon Fast & Furious model: ignore all risks until they become an existential threat of such dire proportions that there is only one available…

The Pirate Code is behind Pay Inequality

In the fourth article of the game theory series, we build on the Saudis out-bluffing OPEC and The Joker forcing the good people of Gotham to choose between game theory and Batman. In this installment, you will learn how blood thirsty, treasure hunting pirates might just explain the ridiculously large wage gaps in modern day corporations. To…

The Bluff: An Important Strategy Tool

There seems to be a strong belief that playing poker teaches people how to invest or run a business. This is of course nonsense. The mathematics behind poker is complex and needs years of formal study to understand the game. The more appropriate notion is that a strong understanding of game playing is extremely useful…

Producing Second Hand Cars, Managing Your Mortgage, Educating Your Children and Saving the Planet

The business performance of car rental agencies was historically volatile. Part of this was simply due to the inability of car rental agencies to predict client behaviour. However, this did not explain all of the variance in their business performance. It was only as the rental companies began to realise that their business was not…