Tag Archives: Analysis

The Investing Edge: The Win / Pay Odds Gap

Investing is too often looked at using a handful of academic models. Successful investing involves thinking about the investment process in as many different ways as possible. This article takes a look at investing using alternative views. From Betting to Investing Many of the ideas used by the investment community are adopted from the horse…

Your health depends on a balanced healthcare playing field

It is my opinion that one of the greatest moves to support free market capitalism in the UAE is the cancellation for Abu Dhabi Thiqa insurance beneficiaries of the 20% co-pay for treatment at private healthcare facilities.  The 20% co-pay was introduced in June 2016 and at that time there was discussion on the effect…

A case study on reporting and transparency of company results

In April of this year I talked about  some of the puzzling moves at Shuaa Capital, one of the better known investment banks in the region which is headquartered and listed in Dubai. Last month Shuaa released their H1 2017 financial results and there was quite a bit of commentary around these results. This commentary…

Your idea of success is completely wrong

There is this idea that success is 100% correct decision making. For some people, they understand this to be 90% or even 80% correct decision making. This idea is completely wrong. A success rate of 56%, implying 44% incorrect decisions, is a great result. Here’s why. Let’s simplify things. Assume that you are the chief executive of a company…

Your stop loss orders aren’t guaranteed to protect you

Speaking of trading, I want to talk about certain trading misconceptions. I recently talked about the liquidity trap that some investors were getting themselves into when investing in illiquid stocks. The issue is not an investment issue but a trading issue that can greatly affect the overall IRR. In discussions about this trading trap some…

UNB kicks off earnings season

Abu Dhabi lender Union National Bank announced its second-quarter financials. On the face of it things look positive with an increase in net profit of 7.2 per cent relative to the same period last year and that net income from interest and Islamic financing, the core business of a bank, rose 2.6 per cent. However, a quick peek…

Analysing Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s Performance

Last year I did a bit of complex analysis, mostly trying to estimate returns, to understand Adia’s 7.5% 30 year internal rate of return (IRR) ending in 2015. This year I will make it easier. Adia’s 2016 30-year IRR was reported as 6.9%. Did Adia perform poorly in 2016? It is difficult to tell as there…

Dana Gas seems confused about sukuk pricing

Dana Gas’s CEO thinks his sukuk coupons are above market even though the sukuk price is below market. This is inconsistent. I am not discussing any Sharia law issues here, just the simple dynamics of the bond (including sukuk) market. This opinion is based on an article in The National. According to Dana Gas’s CEO the…